U.S.–wide, August 5, 2025 – A recent J.P. Morgan mid-year Business Leaders Outlook Pulse Survey reveals a resilient undercurrent of confidence among U.S. middle-market business leaders, providing a hopeful signal for entrepreneurial momentum and venture development across the country. The survey, which sampled over 700 executives from businesses earning between $20 million and $500 million annually, found that despite mounting macroeconomic concerns, a significant majority remain optimistic about their companies’ performance in the year ahead.
The findings suggest a noteworthy dichotomy between external sentiment and internal business expectations. While broader concerns about the economy have escalated—particularly with an increase in the number of executives expecting a recession—most leaders remain confident in their own firms’ ability to adapt, grow, and thrive through 2025. Nearly three-quarters of respondents expressed optimism about their company’s future, even as faith in the national and global economies dipped significantly. Only 32 percent expressed a positive view of the U.S. economy, down sharply from 65 percent in January, and a mere 15 percent maintained optimism about global conditions.
Still, despite this more cautious macroeconomic backdrop, internal business confidence appears to be holding strong. A full 85 percent of business leaders projected their performance would remain stable or improve in the coming months. These leaders were not simply hopeful—they backed their optimism with action. More than three-quarters said they expected revenue to stay flat or grow, while 73 percent anticipated stable or increasing profitability. Many reported plans to maintain or even expand their workforce, indicating a commitment to long-term investment and operational continuity rather than retrenchment.
This sustained business confidence—particularly amid a volatile economic landscape—could have significant ripple effects on the broader startup ecosystem. Middle-market firms often play a critical role in supporting entrepreneurship, not just as buyers of goods and services from startups, but also as collaborators, mentors, and investors. A healthy middle-market sector can stimulate innovation, foster new market entrants, and create an ecosystem in which entrepreneurial ventures are more likely to secure partnerships and funding.
Notably, the survey also revealed that 14 percent of leaders are accelerating their business strategies despite economic uncertainty. This group sees the current environment not as a constraint but as an opportunity—doubling down on innovation, digital transformation, and market expansion. Their actions suggest that bold strategic moves remain on the table for many firms, especially those with strong balance sheets and a clear vision for growth.
Conversely, about 44 percent of respondents acknowledged that they had delayed or altered their strategic plans due to shifting market conditions. Policy uncertainty emerged as the most common factor influencing these adjustments, cited by nearly three-quarters of respondents. Other pressing concerns included market volatility, evolving customer demand, and geopolitical tensions, each of which underscores the complex and interrelated pressures facing today’s business leaders. Yet even among those who were more cautious, the tone remained one of resilience rather than pessimism.
The broader implications of this sentiment are particularly relevant for the entrepreneurial and venture capital communities. Startups often look to middle-market firms as potential early adopters, channel partners, or exit opportunities. When these firms are confident and willing to innovate, it signals to startups and investors alike that the market is open to experimentation and disruption. This creates fertile ground for venture activity, including new product launches, seed funding rounds, and corporate-startup collaborations.
Moreover, hiring trends among these businesses are equally instructive. With nearly 40 percent of executives expecting to hold their workforce steady and 37 percent planning to increase headcount, the middle market is signaling a commitment to growth and investment in talent. This has a direct bearing on the startup landscape, which often relies on a fluid labor market and experienced professionals moving between roles in startups, established companies, and venture-backed firms. A stable employment outlook among middle-market employers helps ensure that skilled professionals remain active contributors to the innovation economy.
The geographic and industry diversity of the survey also speaks to a national trend rather than a sector-specific anomaly. While certain industries—like tech, manufacturing, and logistics—continue to evolve at rapid speeds, the underlying message across sectors is one of measured determination. Even in areas where global pressures are intensifying, such as in supply chains or trade policy, businesses are finding ways to remain agile and pursue their goals.
What emerges from the survey is not a story of blind optimism, but of grounded confidence and pragmatic strategy. Business leaders are carefully watching the economy, adjusting plans when needed, and continuing to invest in their people and platforms. For the startup world, this provides a necessary counterweight to negative headlines and economic uncertainty. It suggests that opportunity still exists—not just in niches or cutting-edge technologies, but in the broader infrastructure of the American economy, where innovation is often tested, refined, and scaled.
In a year marked by inflation fluctuations, interest rate uncertainty, and geopolitical stress, the steady optimism of middle-market firms could serve as a backbone for the country’s entrepreneurial engine. While venture capital fundraising and startup valuations have seen ups and downs, the confidence of these mid-sized businesses suggests that the conditions for entrepreneurship remain viable—and in many sectors, potentially promising.
The 2025 outlook, then, is neither overly rosy nor unduly grim. Instead, it reflects a nuanced reality in which the American entrepreneurial spirit persists. Businesses are navigating complexity with strategy and purpose. And in doing so, they are laying the groundwork for a resilient and dynamic economy that continues to support new ideas, bold ventures, and the pursuit of innovation across industries.
