Their automated system sends data to Chris Gilligan, head of modeling at Wheat DEWAS at the University of Cambridge. He and his team are working with the Met Office to use supercomputers to determine how fungal spores in a particular location spread under specific weather conditions, and how those spores land, germinate, and spread in other areas. We are modeling what the risk of infection is. The researchers drew on previous models, including studies of the plume from the eruption of Iceland’s Eyjafjallajokull volcano, which wreaked havoc in Europe in 2010.
Every day, a downloadable bulletin is published online along with a seven-day forecast. Additional alerts or advisories will also be sent. Information is then disseminated to farmers by the government or national authorities. For example, in Ethiopia, impending risks are communicated to farmers via SMS text messages. Importantly, alerts give you time to react if a problem arises. “Effectively, we have three weeks,” Gilligan said. This means producers can know the risk up to a week in advance and can take action when spores land and cause an infection.
The project currently focuses on eight countries: Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zambia in Africa and Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Bhutan in Asia. However, the researchers hope to receive additional funding to continue the project beyond 2026 and be able to expand it in a number of ways, ideally including adding more countries.
Gilligan said the technology could be applied to other wheat diseases, as well as crops such as rice, which are also affected by weather-generated pathogens.
Dagmar Hannold, a plant pathologist at the University of Adelaide who was not involved in the project, describes it as “a hugely important task for global agriculture”.
“Grains, including wheat, are essential staple foods for humans and animals around the world,” Hannold said. Although programs are being set up to breed more pathogen-resistant crops, new pathogen strains frequently emerge. And when they combine and exchange genes, she warns, they can become “even more aggressive.”
Shaoni Bhattacharya is a freelance writer and editor based in London.