Predictions from Prominent Tech CEOs

Recent statements from multiple tech leaders raise questions about the future of software engineering in an AI-driven landscape. Dario Amodei, the CEO of the $61 billion AI startup Anthropic, expressed confidence in AI’s capability to perform coding tasks at a level that could potentially render traditional software engineering less critical within a year. Similarly, Meta’s CEO Mark Zuckerberg indicated in January that his company is developing AI that could match the coding ability of a mid-level engineer within the same timeframe.

Sam Altman echoed the concern, predicting a future where the demand for software engineers diminishes. Adding to this narrative, a Pew Research survey revealed that half of AI specialists foresee a reduction in software development roles over the next 20 years.

Counterarguments from Okta’s CEO

Contrasting these forecasts, Todd McKinnon, CEO of identity and access management company Okta, dismissed the notion that AI will lead to a decrease in software engineering jobs. “I just laugh every time I hear about it,” McKinnon stated in an interview with Business Insider. He projects a continued or even increased demand for software engineers, believing that technological progress historically necessitates a larger workforce in this field.

McKinnon anticipates that, “in five years, there will be more software engineers,” emphasizing that the evolution of technology—from PCs to mobile devices—has always resulted in greater demand for engineering talent. He asserts that while AI may handle routine tasks, software engineers will transition to more complex responsibilities, such as system design and problem-solving.

Current Trends and Employment Data

Despite McKinnon’s optimism, employment data from ADP indicates a decline in software engineering positions since the pandemic, with predictions showing that by January 2024, there will be fewer software engineers in the U.S. than there were six years ago. Indeed’s statistics reveal a reduction of over one-third in software engineering roles since five years prior.

Nonetheless, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) maintains a positive outlook, forecasting a 17% growth in software developer jobs from 2023 to 2033, which translates to an addition of approximately 327,900 jobs. The BLS reports that the median annual salary for these positions in 2023 was $130,160.

About Okta

Okta, valued at over $15 billion, specializes in software solutions for multi-factor authentication and other user access technologies. As of April 2024, the company employs nearly 6,000 individuals globally and serves over 18,000 clients, positioning itself as a significant player in the identity management space.